Adobe expects traffic from AI platforms to US retail sites to grow 130% year over year during the 2026 holiday shopping season, as it forecasts online sales will reach $275.1 billion.
The forecast covers November 1 through December 31 and is based on Adobe Analytics data from more than 1 trillion visits to US retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories. Adobe says AI traffic is measured by shoppers clicking links from AI-powered chat and browser services through to retail websites.
The 130% figure is therefore a traffic-growth forecast, not a prediction that AI will account for 130% of retail traffic or holiday sales.
High growth vs. overall share
Adobe’s forecast extends a trend it has already observed during 2026. AI-driven traffic to US retail sites grew 127% year over year in August, according to Adobe’s holiday shopping report.
That makes the holiday forecast notable, but the growth rate should not be confused with the channel’s absolute size. Adobe says AI traffic remains modest in overall volume compared with other major channels. The September announcement does not give a percentage showing exactly what share of all retail visits AI referrals represent.
This distinction matters for retailers. A channel can grow very quickly from a relatively small base without immediately becoming one of the largest sources of visits.
For example, during its June Prime Day analysis, Adobe reported that AI traffic to US retail sites had increased 235% year over year during January through May and rose 89% during the Prime Day event itself. Yet Adobe also described the overall volume of AI traffic as modest compared with other major channels. During the event, AI-referred visitors converted 40% better than non-AI traffic.
Holiday sales are growing more slowly than AI referrals
Adobe expects US consumers to spend $275.1 billion online between November 1 and December 31, up 6.7% from the previous year. Cyber Week is forecast to generate $47.5 billion, while Cyber Monday is expected to reach $15.1 billion.
The contrast with AI traffic is striking: AI referrals are forecast to grow 130%, while total holiday online sales are forecast to grow 6.7%. The two, however, are not directly comparable. The AI figure describes growth in a referral channel, while the $275.1 billion figure describes the value of online transactions.
Still, the combination suggests that AI-mediated product discovery is forecast to grow faster than overall online spending. Just recently, SEW reported on how ChatGPT’s emerging product carousel format could make product feeds more important. Similarly, Google Merchant Center’s AI performance report had added sections for AI Search intent, AI Search terms and AI Attributes, giving eligible merchants more information about how products appear in AI-powered searches.
Adobe also expects other acquisition channels to change during the holiday period. Its forecast calls for affiliate and partner revenue share to rise 12% and social media’s share to rise 17%, compared with 4% growth for paid search.
What this means for retailers
Retailers do not need to interpret the 130% forecast as evidence that traditional search has suddenly become irrelevant. Instead, they can treat AI referrals as an additional discovery channel to measure alongside existing search and other referral sources.
If AI-referred sessions begin appearing more frequently in your analytics, compare them with other referral sources on visits, engagement, conversions and revenue. That will show you whether the growth is simply producing more visits or bringing commercially useful shoppers to the site.
For now, Adobe’s forecast points to a rapidly growing channel, but its own data also shows why growth rate and channel size need to be read together.
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