Unruly Launches Tool to Predict ‘Shareability’ of Video Ads


Unruly Media today is launching an algorithmic tool that allows advertisers to predict the “shareability” of their social video advertising content before it is even launched.

Unruly ShareRank allows advertisers to optimize their content marketing strategy by calculating the amount of earned media their videos are likely to attract across the social web and how much paid investment should be deployed.

Advertisers who use the predictive tool can gain insights into the psychological, social and content triggers that affect the success of their video content and, more importantly, enable them to know the word of mouth potential of their video before they spend anything on media.

The algorithm has been developed over six months at the Unruly Social Video Lab by a team of statisticians, who have mapped a variety of sources into one solution to predict social video success. These include:

  • Academic research: Collaboration with leading academics, particularly Dr. Karen Nelson-Field, of the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science, on the key variables that drive video sharing;
  • Consumer data: Analysis of thousands of consumer panel responses, measuring their emotional and social reactions and motivations to share video content;
  • Proprietary technology: The Unruly Viral Video Chart uses proprietary social tracking technology, which has been collating video sharing data for seven years and now stores data from over 300 billion video streams.

“Predicting a social video hit is no longer about luck,” Nelson-Field said in a press release. “Videos that elicit high intensity, positive emotions are three times more likely to be shared than videos that elicit low intensity, negative emotions. It means CMOs can now confidently predict the effectiveness of their content marketing investment.”

Matt Cooke, Unruly CTO and co-founder, noted that Unruly is tracking over 2 million video shares each day.

“We have mapped this data to viewer responses to train the Unruly ShareRank algorithm, which is the only metric on the market to predict the shareability of a video based on seven years’ worth of video sharing data,” Cooke said. “Scrutinizing views is not enough – in a digital world, brands need to understand what drives consumers to engage with their content.”

Unruly ShareRank is already helping brands to create contagious content and optimize their paid media distribution accordingly. Some of the world’s top advertisers and their agencies, including ZenithOptimedia, have been beta testing the product.

“With brands operating in an increasingly cluttered environment, it’s more important than ever to get cut-through,” said Sarah Debnam, head of digital planning worldwide at ZenithOptimedia. “By using Unruly ShareRank, our clients will be able to optimize the earned media potential from their level of paid media investment.”

Sarah Wood, Unruly COO and co-founder, added, “A wildly successful video ad is usually seen as a black swan, an outlier that’s unpredictable and unrepeatable. For leading brand marketers, discovering how to create and distribute highly shareable content, repeatedly and at scale, is at the top of their wish list. Unruly ShareRank does precisely this.”

With Nielsen finding that 92 percent of consumers trust peer recommendations (Global Trust in Advertising Survey) and research from McKinsey stating that “a high-impact recommendation from a trusted friend conveying a relevant message is up to 50 times more likely to trigger a purchase than a low recommendation”, Unruly ShareRank could become a vital indicator of sales as well as word-of-mouth potential.

Founded in 2006, Unruly is a global platform for social video advertising. With a global audience of 917 million monthly unique visitors, Unruly has a worldwide reach of 62.1 percent, according to comScore Media Metrix.

Using a proprietary Media Engagement and Measurement Engine (MEME), Unruly has delivered, tracked and audited 1.65 billion video views, across more than 2,000 successful social video campaigns, for more than 400 brands since 2007. Its milestone campaigns include: T-Mobile’s Life’s for Sharing series, Evian’s global Roller Babies hit, Old Spice’s Man Your Man Could Smell Like campaign, and Coca-Cola’s Happiness series.

Earlier this month, Unruly announced a $25 million Series A investment from Amadeus Capital Partners, Van den Ende & Deitmers and the Business Growth Fund – the largest ever for a private company in the social video space.

Related reading