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Probability

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  1. Looking back: El Niño boosts weather derivatives

    Options, for instance, would allow insurers to calibrate their exposure quite precisely against the probability of taking a hit from exceptional weather over time. December 1997 saw one of many false starts for weather derivatives

  2. Cutting edge intro: Righting wrong-way risk

    To include paths in this set-up, each of them must generally satisfy the condition that along that path the default probability should not grow beyond 1. Using a copula function to define a cumulative probability distribution that follows the paths...

  3. Mariana Capital offers autocall on FTSE 100 stocks

    The probability of there being no kick-out and receiving the 'consolation' return of 30% is 17.16%, while the probability of no kick-out and suffering loss to capital is 6.12%. Mariana Capital has released a six-year autocallable linked to the...

  4. 6 Crucial Link Building Strategies to Drive Quality Traffic

    When a user sees both you and your competitor in the SERP for a particular keyword, the probability that either one of you gets a click reduces dramatically. Since the days of Web 1.0, there have been many tactics that have enjoyed 15 seconds of...

  5. 5 Key Takeaways From a Successful Social Media Campaign Built on Human Connection

    Social Media Increases Purchase Probability Note the significantly higher probability of purchase from customers who engaged with video and social media in the graphic above. This "great divide" makes it increasingly difficult to win the hearts and...

  6. Influential Twitter Accounts Indexed More in Google [Research]

    Inbound links to the tweet seemed to enhance the probability of being indexed as well, as 71.6 percent of the indexed tweets had inbound links to them. Stone Temple Consulting put out findings of research it conducted on the indexation of tweets in...

  7. 4 Reasons You Should Start Obsessing About AdWords Quality Score

    Google makes more money from ads with a high probability of being clicked, and that are positioned prominently on SERPs and across the network. Last October, Alistair Dent wrote an interesting – if somewhat misguided – post about why you shouldn't...

  8. A Simple Test to Guide Every UX Design Decision

    There have been hundreds of times when I've been working on a UI and someone asks "what if the user wants to [insert low probability scenario here]. During the design process, the tendency is to add more features, controls, or content than a screen...

  9. 3 Reasons Why SMBs Should Have a Website-First Marketing Strategy

    This interaction between a prospective customer and your organization's brand further increases the probability that they will do business with you. Many small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) tend to dedicate resources to marketing initiatives...