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Can This Data Analysis Predict Which Google Products Will Close Next?

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google-sorry-were-closedBefore you get too cozy with a new Google product, you may want to mosey on over to Gwern.net, a site that published data attempting to predict Google product shutdowns.

The data could be intriguing to the many marketers who've embraced a new Google product, figured out how to benefit from it, and made predictions about its impact only to find out a few years later, it's been killed off.

Gwern.net findings aim to offer a scientific approach to product adoption by analyzing data of prior Google shutdowns, and forecasting how likely it is that any one product will survive.

The website is based out of Europe and linked to Google+ as author Gwern Branwen. Branwen cites the shutdown of Google Reader as a sobering realization that people rely on products that “exist only at Google's sufferance.”

Branwen adds that “every shutdown hurts its users to some degree, even if we - currently - can rule out the most devastating possible shutdowns, like Gmail.”

The site lists Google's “10 most at risk and likely to be shutdown products”:

  1. Schemer
  2. Boutiques
  3. Magnifier
  4. Hotpot
  5. Page Speed Online API
  6. WhatsonWhen
  7. Unofficial Guides
  8. WDYL search engine
  9. Cloud Messaging
  10. Correlate

It also gives the 10 least likely to be shutdown Google products:

  1. Search
  2. Translate
  3. AdWords
  4. Picasa
  5. Groups
  6. Image Search
  7. News
  8. Books
  9. Toolbar
  10. AdSense

Findings highlight the percentage of survival based on a five-year time span. Google Glass is predicted to have a 50 percent chance or less, according to the model.

google-product-survival-list

What's your opinion on the data presented at Gwern.net? Tell us about it in the comments below.


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