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Will Google Hit $2000 a Share?

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Alerted by a post by Nathan Weinberg on Inside Google we learn that Mark Stahlman, an analyst at Caris & Co., sees shares of Google heading to $2000 a share. The Street.com's Jonathan Berr has a story that includes comments from Stahlman.

Stahlman writes in his note:

"We believe that Google's addressable market has a chance to become much larger, more quickly than initially anticipated, perhaps a $100 billion annual sales company over time...

He goes on to tell Berr:

We now have the technology to actually build out digital services...We didn't have broadband available in the 1990s. We didn't know how to build grids of computers.

On related notes, News.com asking: Where's the stock split? and Andrew Sorkin in The New York Times asking if: Is Google a Good Candidate for Rational Exuberance?

Sorkin's article discusses Safa Rashtchy's prediction last week they he saw Google heading to $600/share and if this is 1999 all over again.


...his [Rashtchy's] prophecy does raise the question of whether analysts and investors have once again become irrationally gaga over the Internet, and Google in particular. Reached on his cellphone at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, Mr. Rashtchy acknowledged that his prediction might seem a bit 1999. "It's understandable that comparisons are made to the bubble," he said. "But this wasn't supposed to be a heroic call or to make noise."

One thing is for sure, while Google has many competitors (according to Eric Schmidt, there is plenty of room for all of them) I'll repeat what I've said many times before. It's not just about creating the best technology, it's also about having mindshare and Google is brilliant at not only getting it but keeping it growing (aka keeping buzz in all sectors strong). Case in point, the Google Video Store. Last week the announcement of it coming "soonish" got PLENTY of attention. Once the store officially launches, still no word on exactly when, watch the buzz and attention come back for a second round. Very smart. This non-stop positive buzz (this includes predictions of a growing stock price) can only do good things for the stock. The question is, what will happen if some of this buzz turns against the company? Will they loose mindshare? Does the expression what goes up, must come down apply to Google? So far the answer is no.

Of course, it's my belief that what Eric Schmidt said in his BBC interview about there being room for many players, both big and small is accurate. Of course, from a motivational standpoint, I wonder how difficult (if at all) it is for other search companies to keep their employees doing great work when one company gets most of the positive press attention when it comes to search and now many other related areas.

Postscript: On a somewhat related and important note, in his SearchDay article this morning, Chris has some great comments about Google and its share price. Thanks to Andrew for pointing them out.

Chris writes:

Uh-huh. I can see it now: Google Doctor (beta). Look out below if this analyst suggests Google Beanstalk

The way things are going, I'm beginning to think that my business plan for GoogleJet and Foodgle that I posted last April Fool's day are sounding more realistic as each day passes.


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