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Scoble Predicts Google Death By Facebook

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Analyst blogger Robert Scoble predicts the demise of Google within four years. He boldly outlines a Future Search engine combination of Facebook-Techmeme-Mahalo technology that will spell doom for Google. The Naked Conversationalist has become the Naked Shorter.

In a video worthy of the best linkbait, Scoble predicts SEOs -- those reviled search engine marketers and search engine optimizers he hates with a passion -- will be walled out of the digital fortress.

"No SEO goddammit," he cries out. "No noise!"

Scoble's theory is powered by the search algorithm underlying Facebook: social graphed-based search, In simple terms, social search is based on the concept of six degrees of separation. We're all separated from anyone in the world by six people or less. We belong to social groups of varying sizes and different functions. In a social graph, those online connections can help people do things: make new friends, rediscover old ones, network for business purposes or share their preferences in music, film, TV, sports, shopping and other quasi-terrestrial activities.

As with any apocalyptic prediction, Scoble knows he's going to be wrong. In 2011, the Googleplex won't be the Pan Am building of Silicon Valley. As New Influencer valleygirls and gamers say, he's just wrong on so many levels.

Scoble gets one thing right, though. Facebook is a search engine.

Advertisers and marketers refer to Facebook and MySpace as “social media.” To some, they're social networks. Sure it's more web 2.0, but Facebook is a vertical search engine. As Scoble notes, the vertical is people search. What makes the search functionality different? It's driven by people, content can be proprietary, search engines can't see inside video streams.

Check out the video anyway. Scoble rises to the defense of Matt Cutts whom he feels was savaged by SEOs at Search Engine Strategies last week in San Jose.

Viewers may not be mesmerized by algorithms that weave the digital fabric of social search. However, Scoble's whiteboard explanation is a valiant attempt at explaining a complex subject to a general audience. It's fun to watch because he's so passionate about his argument.

The three part video begins with a seemingly nervous Scoble, not really sounding quite sure of himself, proclaiming the death of Google. A pro vlogger, perhaps he's having second thoughts about the accuracy of his prediction. His confidence, however, increases as he builds his anti-Google argument.

What's getting his goat?

In short, he's having a Twelve Monkeys moment. Scoble worries Google will suffer the same fate as Microsoft, unable to transform its infrastructure to compete with more nimble platforms. Scoble left Redmond after Micosoft failed to heed his warnings. Now he walks in the Valley of the shadow of Google and fears no evil.

“Finally I have something that does something better than Google,” he writes in a blog comment. Deus ex machina. Plus, if he's right, the FTC will rubber stamp the Google-Doubleclick-Performics merger.

The catch? It's not just Google's technology that created the most popular brand in the world.


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